2018 Home Run Derby Guide

No. 1 Jesus Aguilar (Brewers) vs. No. 8 Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)

No. 2 Bryce Harper (Nationals) vs. No. 7 Freddie Freeman (Braves)

No. 3 Max Muncy (Dodgers) vs. No. 6 Javy Baez (Cubs)

No. 4 Alex Bregman (Astros) vs. No. 5 Kyle Schwarber (Cubs)

  • Jesus Aguilar @ 4-1 (Bet 365)

  • Bryce Harper @ 3-1 (Coral)

  • Max Muncy @ 11-2 (Bet365)

  • Alex Bregman @ 13-1 (Bet365)

  • Rhys Hoskins @ 15-2 (William Hill)

  • Freddie Freeman @ 9-1 (Bet365)

  • Javier Baez @ 9-1 (Bet365)

  • Kyle Schwarber 7-1 (Bet365)

Below is a table which looks at the previous 27 winners of the all-star home run derby and their splits over the course of the first half of the season and their career record at the hosting stadium. Another factor, I have chosen to use is the stadium itself. Over 60% of the time, the winner comes from the conference of the hosting stadium. I somewhat assumed this would be the case due to the familiarities of players playing in a stadium that they visit every year, unlike interdivisional play.

Below is how each of the 2018 candidates stack up against the typical first half of the season statistics of the previous 27 winners.

Advised Bets:

  • Jesus Aguilar (4-1)

In just his second full season in the Major Leagues, the Brewers first baseman has been on an absolute tear. Currently leading the NL in home runs (24) and third in RBI's (70), the righty looks a sure fire bet to go well in the national showpiece on ESPN tonight.

  • Javier Baez (9-1)

This is more of a speculative bet than a tip. History and stats tell us that you need more than just bombs to win the derby. You need to be able to hit for average and have a slugging percentage north of .540. Enter Javier Baez, more well known for his extra terrestrial like groundwork at secondbase, the Cubs all-star's bat often goes under appreciated. The righty has clubbed 19 home runs in the first half of the season slugging .566 in the process. Facing Max Muncy in the first round, his experience may allow him to get the better of the Dodger phenom.

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